(Dan Tri) – European experts say that the Ukrainian army will run out of ammunition next year and Western countries will not be able to fully replenish it until 2025.
Ukrainian soldiers fire artillery in Donetsk (Photo: Reuters).
In an article analyzing the unsuccessful results of Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive campaign, French newspaper Le Monde highlighted three main factors: Russia’s decision to voluntarily withdraw from Kherson and the construction of a complex defense line.
`The year 2024 will be dangerous for the Ukrainians. The equipment that has been delivered to them will be depleted, but they will only be able to recover partially because Western production capacities will not be at optimal levels for
According to estimates from U.S. and Ukrainian sources last year, Russian forces have maintained an advantage in artillery since the start of the conflict, firing three to 10 times more shells per day than
Meanwhile, with Israel also requesting increasingly rare 155mm ammunition, Washington is said to have transferred tens of thousands of artillery shells back to Israel’s warehouses, despite initially reserving them for Ukraine.
`Unlike Ukraine, Russia is unlikely to face a serious ammunition shortage in 2024.`
Speaking at a press conference last week, Estonian military intelligence chief Colonel Ants Kiviselg estimated Russia had about 4 million artillery shells in stockpiles, double the amount the US sent to Ukraine since February last year.
`This means they can continue at the current relatively low intensity of using 10,000 rounds per day for more than a year,` Kiviselg explained, adding that Russia has the capacity to produce more.
Ukraine’s Minister of Strategic Industries Aleksandr Kamyshin told Politico that even if the entire West mobilized all its weapons production capacity exclusively for Ukraine, `that would still not be enough for this war.`
Speaking to Russian soldiers earlier this week, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said that the Ukrainian army was losing its combat power and was `panicking`.
Bloomberg also cited knowledgeable sources as saying that the European Union (EU) seems to be falling behind on its plan to provide Ukraine with 1 million artillery shells by March 2024.
Previously, the EU announced a plan to provide Ukraine with the above amount of ammunition for 12 months.
However, the source said that the EU plan has only achieved 30% progress so far.
Western officials appear to be concerned that Russia’s increased production of artillery shells will make Ukraine’s counteroffensive efforts even more challenging.
